Scorecard: October 11, 2011 Republican Debate
Political reporters change storylines more often than Larry King changes wives.
For the past three debates, the media narrative was framed as an apparent two-man race between Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. But after Gov. Perry had a couple of lousy debates, the media narrative has shifted away from Rick Perry and onto businessman Herman Cain, who has suddenly soared to (or near) the top of several Republican polls.
But unexpectedly, my headline for tonight’s debate has less to do with the candidates and more to do with the moderators.
The moderators, led by PBS Host Charlie Rose, insisted upon serious, policy-focused answers – and the format seemed to bring out the best in the candidates. I hope other moderators are taking notes, as our nation would benefit from more debates like this one.
Here are tonight’s grades, in order of best to worst:
THE TOP TIER
MITT ROMNEY (1st Place, Grade: A)
Mitt Romney wears an almost permanently bemused expression that suggests he sees himself as above the fray. He is. Gov. Romney delivered another impressive performance tonight, successfully deflecting attacks and easily parrying with his opponents. He also displayed a sense of humor, joking with Charlie Rose, who accidentally called on the wrong person.
Mr. Romney is terrific at remaining on message. He steadfastly refuses to answer hypothetical questions that don’t advance his message, opting to transition to the points he wants to make instead.
Mr. Romney is far from the most inspiring candidate the GOP has ever seen. But there’s a reason he’s leading the polls, albeit it barely – what he doesn’t earn in love, he’s earning through hard work and competence.
HERMAN CAIN (2nd Place, Grade: A-)
You have to give this to Herman Cain: He’s the only candidate whose economic plan (“9-9-9”) is becoming a household phrase. That’s good for him, in that it made him a primary focus during tonight’s debate – but it’s also problematic, as it will increasingly make him a target.
Mr. Cain had an advantage during tonight’s debate, which was focused almost exclusively on the economy. He has fared less well on foreign policy issues, and will be more vulnerable when questioned on those topics.
Mr. Cain had one off note tonight when he cited Alan Greenspan as his favorite Fed Chairman. That will likely receive press over the next few days, as Mr. Greenspan’s policies are regularly blamed for this economic crisis.
NEWT GINGRICH (3rd Place, Grade: B)
Former House Speaker Gingrich appeared tough and smart again tonight, looking wiser than most of his competitors. He would have received a higher grade if he didn’t look so angry during a few of his answers. Yes, the American people are angry – but they have consistently rewarded presidential candidates who deliver tough truths with sunny optimism.
One off note occurred when Mr. Gingrich said that Fmr. Sen. Chris Dodd and Rep. Barney Frank should go to prison for their legislation (which was approved by both Chambers of Congress). Mr. Gingrich’s message will never be heard if he continues to offer the press such irresistible sound bites.
MIDDLE OF THE PACK
RON PAUL (4th Place, Grade: B-)
Sure, Dr. Paul delivered the same answers he always does about the Fed, the gold standard, and government intervention. But the seated, roundtable seemed to soften his delivery a bit, making him look more like a senior statesman than like an old crank.
RICK SANTORUM (5th Place, tie, Grade: C+)
Former Senator Santorum is deeply passionate about his beliefs, and he threw some of the strongest punches during tonight’s debate. He convincingly argued that Herman Cain’s “9-9-9” plan couldn’t pass Congress, while his could. Still, there’s little optimistic about Mr. Santorum – and the less charismatic candidate has lost every general election since the beginning of the 24/7 media age in 1980.
MICHELE BACHMANN (5th Place, tie, Grade: C+)
Rep. Bachmann had a good performance tonight, but did little to catapult herself back to the top of the GOP field. Plus, I can’t help wondering if her regular talking point of raising 28 kids – 23 foster children and five biological children – makes her appear eccentric to some voters.
Ms Bachmann got a good line off when she said if you turn the “9-9-9” plan upside down, the devil is in the details. The problem, though, is that she’s talking about Mr. Cain’s plan; nobody is talking about hers.
RICK PERRY (7th Place, Grade: C)
Rick Perry looks like he was culled from central casting on a Hollywood lot, but sounds like he was culled from the George W. Bush school of public speaking.
He may have staunched the bleeding tonight with a “do no harm” debate – but he did little to convince voters that he would be able to effectively debate President Obama in a presidential debate. Nor did he manage to get off a single memorable line.
It’s a good thing for his campaign that he’s raised a lot of money. He’s not going to win the nomination by being a convincing debater, so he’ll need the cash to produce slick, scripted ads.
TRAILING THE FIELD
JON HUNTSMAN (8th Place, Grade: D+)
Jon Huntsman is the uncle at your family picnic who makes a bunch of cringe-worthy jokes that require you to offer polite forced laughter. Tonight, his shtick seemed more appropriate for a bad comic warming up the headliner at Yuk Yuks than for a candidate for president.
By my count, he started three of his answers with jokes – that Washington, DC is the “gas” capital of the nation, that the “9-9-9” plan sounds like the price of a pizza, and that he wasn’t going to make Mitt Romney’s religion an issue (he, too, is Mormon). It’s a shame, because Gov. Huntsman is a thoughtful candidate. But his jokes distract from his more serious points, and he has missed almost every opportunity to break through.
Wondering what measurements I used to help grade tonight’s debate? Here are the seven traits all eight winning general election candidates have had since the beginning of the 24/7 media age in 1980.
Do you agree or disagree with my analysis? Please leave your opinion in the comment section below, but remember the blog’s comment policy – no ad hominem attacks or pejorative name-calling will be posted.
Related: September 22, 2011 Republican Debate Scorecard
Related: September 12, 2011 Republican Debate Scorecard
Related: September 7, 2011 Republican Debate Scorecard
Related: August 11, 2011 Republican Debate Scorecard
Related: June 13, 2011 Republican Debate Scorecard
Related: May 5, 2011 Republican Debate Scorecard
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This website is a joke. Did you ask the American people or did you just choose your top tier media picks. I agree Herman Cain is very popular right now, but NO ONE LIKES ROMNEY OR PERRY. Get a clue and ask the American public who they like because most polls that take them into account are for Cain, Paul or Bachmann.
Rebecca,
If you scroll down toward the bottom of this website, you’ll find the metrics I used to judge these candidates.
As for polls showing Ms. Bachmann and Dr. Paul ahead, I’m afraid you’re making things up. Real Clear Politics compiles a terrific list of the most recent polls. Almost all of them show Mr. Romney leading with Mr. Cain in second place. As Daniel Patrick Moynihan once said, you’re entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts.
Best wishes,
Brad
I could not disagree with your conclusions more. Ron Paul wins every debate because he’s honest and in spite of getting completely ignored despite polling in third in major polls. It is ludicrous that a former head of the Kansas City Federal reserve touting a recycled flat tax plan from Chile and Steve Forbes’ failed presidential run a few years ago has been magically propelled to star status after winning one straw poll. If this country does not overwhelmingtly support its constitution and get back to sound money and sound govenment, we will have a Soviet Union style collapes. The writing is on the wall, America. If you continue to let bought and paid for idiots who are on payrolls tell you what you think you can bet you will get more of the same. For goodness sakes at least go look at what Ron Paul is saying and decide for yourselves!
IMO, you are almost right. Still a little to the left. Speaking from the right, Romney does not work for us. Cain has potential. Rick has not been given enough exposure. He is still more desirable than Mitt. Newt is the genius. However, too many mainstream’s can’t get it figured out.
Kelley,
I’ll take “almost right” — thanks for writing! 🙂
I’m trying to write this not from a partisan perspective, but from a communications one. Early on, I wrote very favorable reviews of Rep. Bachmann, Sen. Thune, Gov. Barbour, and other conservatives.
I hope you’ll continue to read the blog!
Best wishes,
Brad
It continues to amaze me that the only Republican who has any real understanding of monetary supply, sound economics, and foreign policy problems can be so easily dismissed. I can only hope that the race will eventually come down to Romney vs. Paul, whereupon Dr. Paul will destroy “soundbite” Romney. The Meaning of Liberty seems to escape the media as a whole, or does it just scare you to think that it might apply to everyone?
GC,
I’m not commenting on the rightness or wrongness of Dr. Paul’s conclusions, but rather the historical trends that drive winners in general elections. You can find more information about the measurements I used to come up with my grades here: https://www.throughlinegroup.com/index.php/2010/12/15/2012-election-preview-final-candidate-rankings/.
Thanks for reading,
Brad
America, tinkering with Keynsian economics is as pointless pouring a glass of water on a forest fire. No candidate, except Ron Paul, will do anything but tinker with a failing system. We have to purge, uproot, destroy, decimate central banking in this country if there is any chance for a return to our constitutional Republic. Please, I beg of you, stop listening to the media. Look carefully at this so-called analysis and try to keep from chuckling. Cant everyone see that Ron Paul is being ignored and marginalized because people are benefiting from the current system. Democrat and Republican…please…its just window dressing to make the sheep think they have a choice. Everyone on stage tonight is telling you exactly what you want to believe, panering for your votes. Why do you think you elect this Republican or that Democrat and nothing ever really changes? Its because the beneficiaries of the system, which is propbably not you, dont WANT it to change. All they have to do is make you think their on your side. I assure you they’re not. Ron Paul is the only one saying he would uproot the whole corrupt system rather than tinker with it. Please, please go to Ron Paul’s website and see if what he says makes sense to you. He is 100% consistent with your Constitution. Why is that so bad?
Mitt Romney is the front-runner because Mitt Romney is a brilliant Harvard grad who knows what he is talking about when it comes to the economy and is the only candidate running who has the knowledge and experience of how to restore the economy. He will be the candidate for the Republican party.
I agree. The masters of this site are not listening to the American people. We don’t like Perry or Romney. Romney is a liberal spelled LIBERAL.
I thought your analysis was right on. By the way, I am a Republican and a fiscal conservative – I feel a lot of the American public is too – and I am increasingly impressed by Romney. Comment says he is a liberal (which I am NOT) but I don’t find myself disagreeing with many of his answers. I can forgive Romney for Romneycare as long as he does what’s necessary to eliminate Obamacare, and that’s exactly what he says he will do.
I do believe Charlie Rose did an excellent job with this debate. Hope to see more like this one.
For those of you addressing policy, please take note that this blog is focused on media training and communications skill. It uses the following criteria to make judgments, none of which are ideological:
1. Clarity of message
2. Clarity of vision
3. Optimism of message
4. Alignment of message with constituent concerns
5. Charisma of candidate
6. Comfort of candidate in his skin
7. Plain-spokenness (sic) of language
As for those of you addressing “America” – I hope your inflated opinion of this blog is realized some day.
Brad – as always, nice job.
I do like the round table idea; I think it really helped in keeping the candidates on point.
I agree with Kelley. Newt is a genius and is one of a few that has stuck to answering the questions asked intelligently, his only problem is that he does not know when to keep his mouth shut (example Dodd/Frank and prison) even though I agree with him that kind of statement is not appropriate for a presidential debate. Gives people too much ammo to fire at him.
I do not like Romney- don’t trust him. Mainlyl due to he has a history of flip floping way to too much and his faith is an issue for me along with his ethical stances on abortion, etc.
I am upset that the political turmoil of this country dealing with the economy has overtaken the debates and I would like to hear some on other issues that are important as well. I am afraid we will elect someone just on the economy and end up regretting it due to no one asks hard hitting questions relating to other issues.
Newt and Cain are my favorites. Cain’s plan can work but you can tell just by listening to the other candidates, they can’t get their mind wrapped around it and keep trying to apply his plan with the current tax codes.
Ron Paul scares me just for the fact that he wants to leave our enemies completely alone without question, Iran specifically. When people hate us as much as this country does we can’t be naïve.
He seemed better last night, but his statements are a little off the deep end.
Dont’ trust Perry either, makes me wonder why he is in this. Huntsman needs to get a clue he is a democrat.
I would bet good money that Mitt ROmney will win the and take the Rep. Pres. & Cain or Newt should be Vice
Pres.
Mitt is a very smart person. But if a president is for abortion, I will not vote for him.
“Mr. Gingrich’s message will never be heard if he continues to offer the press such irresistible sound bites.”
And there, in my humble opinion, lies the lesson for ALL candidates. Whether it was Mr. Gingrich’s trove of soundbites or Ms. Bachmann’s “turn 9-9-9 upside down” line, Mr. Santorum’s “let’s go to war with China” or any of the other memorable one-liners, the lesson for the candidates is that while soundbites like these may sound good in the moment, they either 1) overshadow the substance of your message or 2) emphasize the fact that you don’t have a message of substance to begin with. The more outrageous the one-liner, it seems, the more the media fixates on it and the more everyone talks about it (and not your message).
Good post, Brad – thanks!
There was an article in the New York Times this past week about Rick Perry starting to put in more effort into his debate prep, but I don’t think it did a thing. Mitt Romney is absolutely destroying the field. From Mitt’s counterpunch about the number of uninsured children in Texas to the way he didn’t focus his attacks and attention on Perry so that Perry would be irrelevant during the night, Perry and his campaign staff are doing an excellent job.
So its not a fact that,
“Rep. Ron Paul of Texas turned out his well-organized crop of supporters Saturday and won a presidential preference straw poll with 37% of the vote.”
REFERENCE : LA TIMES OCTOBER 8 2011.
NOT MY OPINION, ACTUALLY HAPPENED.
Another quote about your boyfriend ROMNEY,
“Cain, who won a surprise victory in a straw poll last month in Florida, delivered a rousing speech Friday afternoon in which he joked about the pressure that comes with breaking into the “top tier” of candidates in the GOP primary race. Cain’s showing was considerably better than the two presumed frontrunners. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Gov. Rick Perry didn’t do so well. Perry won 8%, and Romney took just 4%.”
REFERENCE LA TIMES, OCTOBER 8, 2011
These are polls that actually asked the American voters their choice. They DID NOT take the a poll of FOX news representatives which I see is where your information probably came from. So maybe your not entitled to your own facts Bradley.
Hows that for clear politics?
Love,
Rebecca
Rebecca,
You’re right that Dr. Paul and Mr. Cain have won straw polls, which are notoriously bad indicators of electoral success (see Ron Paul campaign, 2008). Nonetheless, I was responding to the incorrect assertion you made in your original email when you wrote, “most polls that take them into account are for Cain, Paul or Bachmann.” You’re right that Mr. Cain has surged to a national lead. But no major polling organization (including Gallup, Wall Street Journal/NBC, Public Policy Polling, and others) have put Paul or Bachmann anywhere near the lead.
I welcome your response, but will not post another baiting reply from you that refers to me as “Bradley” or any other term intended as a pejorative. Such antagonism is in violation of this blog’s “no jerks allowed” policy.
Best wishes,
Brad
I have worked on many campaigns on the local level here in the state of Ma. So I like to think that I have a relatively good idea on how to score a debate.
First I definitely liked the round table discussion, it appeared that charlie rose had control and gave ample time to respond to each of the candidates.
The way the Results came out on the this site, I can not really argue clearly Romney and Cain were winner and runner up, and if I am wrong I think they were eying one another for the ticket. But If I were going to add anything new I think Rick Santorum did better than given credit for, he held his own on the attack and gave an interesting insight to energy relief, by starting in PA With Natural Gas.
Nicholas,
I agree with you that I rated Rick Santorum a notch too low. He was very effective when he turned to the audience and asked whether they wanted to pay a nine percent sales tax, as Herman Cain’s “9-9-9” would require. If I had it to do over again, I likely would have given him a “B-.” He still scowls and looks angry a lot of the time, but he had a better performance last night than he has in other recent debates.
Thanks for writing,
Brad
Jerrry,
You are my hero.
Cains plan means social security and medicare needs eliminating. You can not pay 9% and fund those programs. Infact, you can not support ANY programs and certainly not Defense spending. Perhaps our troops may work for nothing and fight the war with sling shots?
Sales tax of 9% is an increase of $3000 on the price of a new car, $100 on a new TV and every single week, tax on our groceries. It simply may work for the first, second and third pizza for $9 but it will not keep the country afloat.
Brad-
Let me preface this by saying that I’m another crazy Ron Paul supporter, and regardless of his facial expressions or energy level he always deserves an A+ in my book. However I must say I always enjoy your commentary, and look forward to reading it after each debate. I really respect the fact that you always seem to be fair, honest, and impartial in your comments. Keep up the good work!
Emily,
Thank you very much for your kind comments. You have paid me the ultimate compliment – that I try to be fair, honest, and impartial – and I thank you for saying that.
For the record, I don’t think supporters of Dr. Paul are “crazy” – if anything, I appreciate their passionate civic engagement and knowledge of issues most people aren’t talking about. My criticisms of Dr. Paul don’t have to do with his beliefs or views, but rather the manner in which he delivers them. When he becomes too strident, I’m concerned he turns off a lot of potential voters – I can’t think of an overly-strident candidate who’s won the presidency since the beginning of the 24/7 media age.
Thanks again for your kind words, and thanks for adding your voice to the blog!
Brad
Brad I liked your rating scale and thought you were fair.
Carol when looking at the 9-9-9 plan you have to get rid of the current tax code in your mindset which is hard to do- since we have been brainwashed for years.
What will happen is that you are paying for only what you buy and the next step is the Fairtax. If you can’t afford you won’t buy it. Actually it will put more money in the economy and you will have more to buy, since you will have more in your paycheck.
From what I understand with this plan, is that you would receive all of your paycheck minus these 9-9-9 percentages all the others deductions that are currently being deducted, you would receive except for state income tax (unless your state doesnt have this.
This plan is co created by Art Laffer a Reagan economic advisor and Paul Ryan loves it.