Last modified on August 9, 2010 by Brad Phillips

Election 2012 Preview: The Contenders

Editor’s Note, December 15, 2010: Click here to see the final rankings of all 18 GOP contenders – and President Obama.

Over the next few months, the Mr. Media Training Blog will look at each of the Republicans most likely to enter the 2012 presidential race.

Most pundits analyze a general election by looking at the same old measurements, some more reliable than others: unemployment data, early polling, right direction-wrong direction numbers, consumer confidence, and long-term voting trends.

But they always miss a reliable predictor: how well the candidate performs in the media. I’m not talking here about how favorable their coverage is, but rather how well they perform as media spokespersons.

Here’s a fact: Every presidential winner since 1980, the beginning of the 24/7 media age that spawned endless coverage of each aspirant, has been more the more gifted media spokesperson.

Since 1980:

  1. The candidate with the clearest message has always won.
  2. The candidate who articulated the clearer vision has always won.
  3. The sunnier candidate with the more optimistic message has always won.
  4. The candidate best aligned to constituent concerns has always won.
  5. The more charismatic candidate has always won.
  6. The candidate who appeared most comfortable in his skin has always won.
  7. The candidate who made the strongest intellectual appeal and used the biggest words has not always won.

I created these metrics based on the eight general elections since 1980, not on primary elections. Although the model also is often correct for primary elections, it occasionally fails to capture the fissures within a partisan base. That’s why a more optimistic candidate, such as Mike Huckabee, can fall in a primary to a less optimistic candidate like John McCain.

Still, these metrics do provide valuable insight into how these candidates would likely fare during a general election, a calculation many voters make when stepping into the voting booth.

U.S. Sen. John Thune (R-SD), who has captured a lot of insider buzz over the past few months, kicks off our series tomorrow. Between now and the end of the year, our series will critique the media performances of more than a dozen potential candidates, including:

U.S. Sen. John Thune

    1. (R-SD)

GRADE: B

Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney

    1. (R-MA)

GRADE: B-

Fmr. Gov. Haley Barbour

    1. (R-MS)

GRADE: A-

Fmr. Rep Newt Gingrich

    1. (R-GA)

GRADE: C-

Fmr. Gov. Jeb Bush

    1. (R-FL)

GRADE: B-

Fmr. Gov. Tim Pawlenty

    1. (R-MN)

GRADE: C

Fmr. Gov. Mitch Daniels

    1. (R-IN)

GRADE: C

Fmr. Gov. Bobby Jindal

    1. (R-LA)

GRADE: B-

Fmr. U.S. Rep. Ron Paul

    1. (R-TX)

GRADE: D+

Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum

    1. (R-PA)

GRADE: D

Fmr. Gov. Chris Christie

    1. (R-NJ)

GRADE: B+

U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio

    1. (R-FL)

GRADE: A

Fmr. Gov. Gary Johnson

    1. (R-NM)

GRADE: C

Sen. Jim DeMint

    1. (R-SC)

GRADE: C+

U.S. President Donald Trump

    1. (R-NY)

GRADE: D

U.S. Vice President Mike Pence

    1. (R-IN)

GRADE: C

Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee

    1. (R-AR)

GRADE: A-

Fmr. Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK)

GRADE: C+